I have just posted on the PropNET Studies Blog ( http://propnet-studies.blogspot.com/ ) what Es conditions you can possibly expect beginning late April. This information is based on 6 years of data collected from my participation in PropNET on 10 Meters. The information includes how the season begins and ends and what to expect by week and by hour. Thie information coincides with the 5-Year study, but now includes the 6th year collected (2010). No new breakthoughs occurred in 2011, but it might have displayed a cyclical trend.
I hope that it helps provide you with information that will improve your results on the band. It will be interesting to see this season how the rise of solar activity will affect Es propagation. I hope you join us at 28.1188 PSK31 +1500 Hz..
In addition, on the blog I have posted a recap of F2 propagation the last month (March). It was great to see a return of solar activity.
Please feel free to email direct if you have any comments or questions at my call at sbcglobal.net or yahoo.
73s Art KA5DWI